Lula is the projected winner in Brazilian presidential elections. With 94% of the vote counted, the progressive lead almost 3 points over his right-wing opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro.

Despite the results of the quick count, Brazil may be in for a long night — and perhaps a long few days and weeks. Elections were fraught with irregularities. Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that polling stations stay open after long lines, non-functioning voting machines, and irregular public transportation in the capital.

Some complied. Others did not. Both campaigns denounced the dynamic as vote-tampering against their campaigns.

Lula overperformed his first-round results after an old-school massive street push in the last weeks of the campaign, largely ignoring a trend of virtual campaigning in recent LATAM elections.

There is an important caveat, however. Two organic trends from Lula supporters dominated South American social media in the lead-up to the final round: supporters posting selfies making an “L” sign with their hands was boosted by some very high profile celebrities.

But the second trend, female Lula supporters posting cleavage shots became a wave that spread well beyond the borders of Brazil, and across the sub-continent.

Even as we type these words, however, the Bolsonaro campaign is, without any doubt whatsoever, filing legal challenges. It is very unlikely they will concede and accept election results.

A long political slog is on its way to Brazil. And it’s likely to be a long night for us at PWS.

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After an absolutely wild campaign season, Brazilians go to the polls today to decide whether progressive candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva *Lula), or right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio is favored heading into the polls, but Lula has picked up momentum since the first round. A legislative victory that reformed the Brazilian work-week was followed by an explosion of street campaigns that seem to be paying dividends.

The Stakes

There is a lot at stake: in terms of security policy, US influence, the future of the Amazon rain forest, and a whether or not the largest country in South America will buck a trend of right-wing victories in the region.

We spoke with Brazil historian Benjamin Fogel about Flavio’s ties to the milicias, or the right-wing mob, as well as his security policies for Pirate Wire Radio.

Benjamin has piece out this week in Jacobin about Lula’s last-minute surge in the campaign, as well as a sense among Brazilian progressives that today’s elections are do-or-die.

The campaign

The campaign has been plagued with scandal, controversy, US meddling, and all the drama a political junkie could ever want, though at times the candidates have preferred bluster and insult to policy details.

has a debate-reaction piece that goes into some of the details of all of that, as well as how Flavio managed to create a meme that will likely haunt him for year.

Latin America Risk Report

Brazil Debate Notes - October 2026

I watched most of the Brazilian presidential debate last night, as the two candidates stalked each other around the stage and Flavio stood behind Lula every time the president spoke. Here are a few notes going into the final week of the campaign…

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8 days ago · 14 likes · James Bosworth (Boz)

Brazilian courts have been a target of US President Donald Trump for months, but evidence emerged in the last few weeks that Meta, and X were also putting their thumbs on the scale.

And while the White House hasn’t explicitly endorsed Flavio, they’ve made it very clear who Uncle Sam would prefer in office.

The stakes could not be higher. We will of course be covering the results tonight, after a power-nap until the afternoon.

Hasta muy pronto, piratas!

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Brazil head to polls for presidential elections

Brazilians go to the polls this Sunday for presidential elections that will determine the future of US influence not only in Brazil, but in many ways, all of South America.

​Ultra-right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, and son of convicted ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is facing off against current progressive president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as “Lula.”

​Here at PWS, we’ve reported extensively on the race’s dynamics, including the candidates’ positions on security, the environment, and submission to US will.

​After a wave of right-wing elections, and the installation of a US puppet state in Venezuela, Brazil is one of the last countries in South America that isn’t openly subservient to US interests.

​Flávio outperformed polls in the first round, and leads slightly heading into Sunday’s elections. The US has made it clear who it prefers: Bolsonaro.

Lula has had a couple big victories since the first round, however. A new report shows deforestation of the Amazon is down significantly, and new law pushed by Lula’s party cleared Congress for final approval this week.

Workers in Brazil will now be working a 5 instead of 6-day workweek for the same pay. Despite the last-minute boon for Lula, however, Flavio is still favored to win.

​It will be one of, if not the most, closely watched election in the region. This is definitely the story to watch this week in Latin America.

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Protests are growing in Argentina, and Colombia

Argentina and Colombia both have right-wing presidents who are implementing budget cuts and rollbacks to worker protections. And both governments are facing growing pushback to the pro-elite policies.

Police attacked protesters this week at public universities who were demonstrating against austerity measures in Argentina, which resulted in running skirmishes spreading across Buenos Aires.

In Colombia, student groups, activists, and indigenous communities staged a test-run for a national strike in November. Regardless of whether they are able to organize demonstrations on that level, pushback against the new right-wing President, Abelardo de la Espriella, is growing.

Both countries have a long tradition of street protests, and both have presidents who have promised crackdowns on protest movements.

These stories bear watching, especially in Colombia, where a national strike in 2022 effectively turned then-President Ivan Duque into a sitting duck, in part because of rampant police violence.

Punk Rock mouse rediscovered in Colombia

Colombian researches found a species of field mouse that hadn’t been sighted for over one-hundred years, and was presumed to be extinct.

The “tree-tailed fieldmouse” has a distinct red crest on its back that reminds of the mosh pit at a Fertil Miseria concert. Seems pretty punk rock to us. He is welcome anytime on the Good Ship Capybara here at Pirate Wire Services.

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Now he’s saying that 50% of those victims of the state will be released on parole.

Critics of his draconian security policy are calling it an admission that many of those detained are not guilty of any crimes.

Since Bukele declared a “temporary” state of emergency, security forces have arrested more than 100,000 people in arbitrary sweeps carried out by police. His CECOT “mega-prison” is one of the most notorious in the Americas. Detainees are regularly subjected to beatings, sleep and food deprivation, and denied regular medical attention.

576 people have died in custody, and Human Rights Watch and other watchdog organizations have reported conditions that amount to torture.

Many were convicted in mass trials that violated their rights to due process, the majority for terrorism related charges, a term the Salvadoran government uses to describe those who have allegedly aided gang members.

In 2022, El Salvador declared a supposedly temporary State of Exception which greatly expanded the powers of security forces and effectively abolished many civil rights in the country.

The emergency measure has now stretched into its 5th year.

The “Bukele model” has been emulated by right-wing presidents in other Latin American countries as well, though none have achieved the security gains.

Bukele, who illegally ran for a second term in El Salvador, and is almost certain to continue in office after that, is strongly supported by the United States, who provide cover for rampant human and civil rights abuses.

Its part of a larger pattern of US support for authoritarianism across the region. Sign up for Pirate Wire Services for details, context, and on-the-ground coverage in Latin America.

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The episode is merely the latest in a wave of violence committed by an agency that regularly cloaks the identities of its officers in paramilitary-style baklavas, or in plain clothes with no identifying characteristics as law-enforcement.

ICE is now the most well-funded law enforcement organization on the planet. Its yearly budget exceeds the military spending of roughly 180 nations. That’s out of a total of 195 globally.

And the agency, just one appendage of the US Department of Homeland Security, is a mere snapshot of the increasing power of the US police and surveillance state overall, which has grown increasingly both militarized and intrusive in recent years.

And they operate a lot like the mob.

Official data from the Department of Homeland Security reports 50 individual shooting incidents involving DHS, ICE, and CBP agents At least 11 people have been killed and 25 or more injured.

At least 59 people have died in ICE custody since the start of the second Trump administration, according to ICE statistics. That tally doesn’t include deaths of those recently released from ICE custody. In June the agency announced it was ending its policy of reporting those deaths to the public.

Dozens of women claim they have been sexually assaulted in DHS custody.

But DHS isn’t just going after migrants. According to Pro Publica, over 500 Americans have been handcuffed, held at gunpoint or held against their will by DHS personnel in Trump’s second term.

They have also murdered two native-born US citizens.

DHS is already using their public megaphone to demonize Mr Belgar. This follows a pattern by DHS in which they make a series of false claims almost always disproven by follow-up reporting.

Protesters in New York surrounded the hospital where Belgar was being treated when ICE arrived to detain him. A Trump-appointed migration judge has already ordered his deportation, following another DHS patter: much like how the mob operates, if there is no witness, there will be no legal prosecution.

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​The elder Bolsonaro remains under house arrest for an attempted coup after falsely claiming the last round of presidential elections were fraudulent.

Lula’s campaign has also accused the US of interfering in elections, citing a White House endorsement of the younger Bolsonaro as well as a host of other right-wing candidates in the national elections.

The Guardian this week published a story reporting that the administration of US President Donald Trump plans to award $1m to right-wing civil groups opposing the Brazilian Supreme Court.

The US attempted to interfere with the conviction of the elder Bolsonaro, describing his conviction as “lawfare”, and accusing the country’s Supreme Court of a “political witch hunt.”

The US briefly imposed 50% on all Brazilian goods, and sanctioned members of the Brazilian court

​In recent weeks, the US has threatened economic retaliation if Lula’s party wins elections.

​Lula’s campaign has also accused US-owned social media companies of throttling their voices, with Facebook and X refusing to run election ads for the liberal candidate.

Flavio Bolsonaro has visited the White House, and advocated for increased US pressure on his own country in an attempt to free his father from house arrest, and overturn a ban on his social media use.

Flavio has promised closer ties with the US, and preference for Western companies in the countries considerable mining sector, including rare-earth minerals, which are a critical component for weapons manufacturing and the private tech sector.

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Brazil goes to elections with Bolsonaro and Lula in a statistical tie

Brazil’s goes to the polls on Sunday for the first round of a high-stakes presidential election between incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party.

Flávio is picking up the political movement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running and placed under house arrest for an attempted coup.

Flávio is echoing a common refrain in recent LATAM election: aggressive security tactics, mass incarceration, lowering the minimum age of criminals than can be tried as adults, and privatizations of nationally owned entities.

In many ways, it also a referendum on whether Brazil will be subservient to US interests. We wrote about that in detail for this week’s PWS feature story. You can read that below!

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After Delcy’s glamour-tour at the United Nations, Venezuelans protest for elections

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez met with a host of world leaders, including US President Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly in New York City last week.

The two leaders had nothing but positive words for one another. In comments to the press, Rodriguez assured that Venezuela will hold elections “soon.” She did not specify a date, nor clarify whether those elections would be local, national, or presidential.

While Rodriguez shook hands at photo ops in the US, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado revealed to Spanish media that she has attempted to re-enter Venezuela seven times since leaving the country last year.

During all of her attempts, she was turned away before she reached Venezuelan airspace. She did blame the US for the aborted attempts, but it is clear who is responsible.

Machado has been sidelined by the Trump administration, and her popularity has slipped at home, though she still remains the most popular political figure in Venezuela.

Her supporters staged rallies on Friday demanding elections and her return.

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Uncle Sam is making a love nest in Ecuador

US military personnel, aircraft, trainers, drones, and engineers are flooding into Ecuador to support the “iron fist” policies of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

Noboa has stationed most of them at the Taura airforce base, where US officials have effective control. Foreign military bases are prohibited by the Ecuadorian Constitution.

Naboa has justified the move, however, under laws that allow temporary cooperation with foreign militaries. We broke it down as part of our new video explainers this week.

The story is important because Ecuador is increasingly becoming the test-case for US actions in Latin America.

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Noboa is doubling down on US cooperation in security operations, Even as his policy fails to deliver results. Ecuador is on track to experience its 2nd highest homicide rate in recorded history.

Despite this, Noboa is effectively asking for a US military base on Ecuadorian soil. This violates Ecuador’s constitution.

Nonethless, he has all but handed operational control over to US operators at the Taura Airforce base in Guayas province, about 45 minutes from the coastal city of Guayaquil.

In late 2025, voters overwhelmingly rejected Noboa’s attempts to pass a Constitutional referendum that would have overturned a ban on US military bases in the country.

But Noboa isn’t letting that stop him. US Marines, aircraft, and trainers have been arriving to the base in recent weeks, even establishing perimeter controls, and re-designing the compound.

On September 8, Ecuadorian Commander Gen. Mauricio Salazar Machuca sent an official letter to the Joint Command, demanding that the base remain under Ecuadorian control. Noboa had him removed from office two days later.

Meanwhile, US military presence in the country has only expanded, despite the fact that journalists and human rights groups have identified cases of extrajudicial killings, torture, and sexual abuses as part of security crackdowns.

US-assisted strikes have also killed at least two dozen civilians, including fishermen on boats in the Pacific Ocean. Joint operations also destroyed a dairy farm near the Colombian border in March. US officials falsely claimed the site was a drug-processing compound.

US actions in the country also almost certainly violate the Leahy Law, which prohibits the US Department of Defense to provide assistance to countries that commit human rights violations.

But the law isn’t stopping Trump either.

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Armed gunmen on motorcycles fired at multiple businesses that opened their doors on Tuesday, defying the orders of the non-state armed group.

Also called the Pachenko, the group controls ports in Santa Marta, as well as parts of the Panamerican highway in the department of Magdalena, where Santa Marta is located.

The group passed out pamphlets saying the violent shutdown is in response to the deaths of Jose Luis Perez, a.k.a. “Cholo,” and six other ACSN fighters, who were killed during an offensive on Monday.

“We’re going to send them all to hell in body bags,” said Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella after the operation, in a video of himself walking among the bodies of those killed.

Learn more on today’s Daily Wire video update!

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Bolivia’s New Furry Friend

A new species of feline was discovered in the cloud forests of Bolivia last week, when DNA testing on one small cat that a resident described as “a weird house cat” when he dropped it in an animal shelter last year.

Scientists have dubbed the new species Leopardus tilcayo, also somewhat commonly called a Tigrillo by locals. The discovery inspired adoration and memes around the world, and a crowdfunding site maintained by the shelter had already raised more than $100,000 as of Sunday evening.

The news couldn't be more welcome in Bolivia, which is confronting simultaneous energy and economic crises. The embattled government of Rodrigo Paz just accepted a $1.9 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meant to stall rising inflation and a spiraling national deficit.

The Paz administration cut diesel subsidies Friday in a move that is highly likely to inspire roadblocks by transportation unions and campesino organizations.

Even the overpowering cuteness of our newest jungle kitty friend is unlikely to improve prospects for an embattled government.

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Haiti extradites Colombians accused of murdering president to the US

Eighteen suspects, principally Colombian citizens, who were arrested in the July 2021 killing of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse are being extradited to the US, US officials announced Sunday evening.

The move by US officials marks the next step in a drawn out process that has yet to hold a trial for suspects who have been jailed in Haiti for 5 years.

The suspects will face justice in Florida, according to a public statement by Jason Reding Quiñones, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida.

The US has also indicted 11 other suspects.

Several of the Colombians pled guilty during a preliminary trial, though they have since stated that they were beaten, denied food, threatened with execution, and forced to sign statements in a language they did not understand.

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Delcy takes Manhattan, and will attend a UN Assembly

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet this Tuesday Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, the White House announced on Friday.

The visit will be the first in-person meeting between the two leaders, who have shared words of support and warmth in recent months.

This will also be the first meeting between a U.S. president and a Venezuelan leader in more than 11 years, since the brief meeting between Barack Obama and Nicolás Maduro during the 2015 Summit of the Americas, held in Panama.

Also this week, the US is set to take custody of over $400 million in Venezuelan gold, which was seized in the United Kingdom in 2019, when the country supported the bid of Juan Guaidó as interim president.

US officials have claimed the gold will be used to fund reconstruction in Venezuela after dual earthquakes devastated the country earlier this year.

The Other Big Headlines in LATAM

• Millions in Cuba were left without power on Friday as the country was plunged into yet another major blackout. It is at least the sixth partial or total blackout to hit Cuba this year, where ageing electricity infrastructure and chronic fuel shortages have been placed under further strain by a US blockade on oil shipments to the communist-run nation.

• Laura Sarabia, Colombia’s former Foreign Minister, ex-chief of staff, and former ambassador to the UK under Petro, who resigned from all of those positions after scandals, has been charged for abuse of power for her role in “Nannygate”, in which she demanded police detain and interrogate her nanny after a large briefcase of cash went missing in her apartment.

• Former Venezuelan Minister Alex Saab pled guilty to laundering $195 million for the Maduro government in US courts as part of a plea deal with US prosecutors. Saab was extradited to the US by the Rodriguez government in conjunction with the FBI.

• An ICE agent shot Venezuelan citizen Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, 28, in Austin on Sunday. His attorney said he was doing a DoorDash delivery when the shooting happened, and the man subsequently called his wife from inside the vehicle before being shot by migration officials. He was released from the hospital into federal custody.

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United States President Donald Trump maintained that Colombia “failed demonstrably during the previous 12 months to make substantial efforts to adhere to their obligations under international counter-narcotics agreements.”

In an annual review, Trump extended Colombia’s status as “an unreliable partner” in the ‘War on Drugs’, and stressed that the South American country maintains its an unwilling drug trafficking country “solely due to the incompetence and chaos produced by the previous far-left government.”

“If, as expected, Colombia makes progress on aggressive coca eradication and dismantling its narcoterrorist networks over the coming year, I will consider lifting the country’s ‘failed demonstrably’ status,” said the US president.

In the same annual report, the US removed Venezuela from the list of decertified countries, stating “thanks to my administration’s arrest and removal of former illegitimate dictator and drug trafficker Nicolas Maduro, we are already seeing growing cooperation,” with the country’s interim administration.

The statement mentions only one event: the US-assisted killing of a minor Tren de Aragua leader, Niño Guerrero, in the Arco Minero region of Venezuela.

For years US officials have exaggerated the power and reach of the Venezuelan gang across the Americas, including in the US, but have largely fallen silent on the topic since January, when the US attacked Venezuela and captured Maduro.

Venezuela has carried out no other enforcement operations according to publicly available data.

In Colombia, President Abelardo de la Espriella has launched an aggressive campaign against coca cultivation and cocaine production, as well as non-state armed groups (NSAGs). Coca production reached record levels under the previous administration of Gustavo Petro.

Trump backed de la Espriella during presidential elections, which he won by a razor-thin margin. Nonetheless, Trump also praised the new right-wing firebrand, stating “Colombia is poised to resume its place as our foremost security partner in the hemisphere, and the country’s military, police, prosecutors, and courts now finally have a worthy champion in President de la Espriella.”

De la Espriella, who took office in August, informally joined the US Government’s Shield of the Americas program in an attempt to increase cooperation between Trump’s conservative and far-right allies in the region.

As part of his counternarcotics efforts, the Colombian president tried to increase air strikes on so-called “narcoterrorist” groups, but was forced to stop this by a court to protect minor forced recruitment victims.

The National Police announced a pilot aerial fumigation program, but this was also suspended by a court because of health and environmental concerns.

The State Department vowed to seek $1 billion dollar in aid, but has yet to achieve Congressional approval.

Many Latin America experts questioned the coherency of the classifications by the White House.

“One wonders what Colombian soldiers and police, who lost comrades in combat with drug-trafficking armed groups over the past year, think of the Trump admin ‘decertifying’ Colombia,” said Adam Issacson, border and security analalyst for the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), “while Venezuela—where security forces widely collude with those groups—is now fully ‘certified.’”

Despite decades of “War on Drugs” policies, the US has neither reduced the quantity of drugs being imported, or the domestic deaths from overdoses. Despite flashy operations and questionable bombings of civilian boats in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Trump administration has continued in failing to stem either as well.

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ADELE’s Theatre of the Macabre

As Abelardo de la Espriella completes his first month as President in Colombia this week, he is stepping up rhetoric against criminal and non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in the country. His most recent obsession has been posing with body bags containing alleged combatants killed by state forces and bellicose statements that are inspiring controversy.

Though official numbers of those killed by security forces are not yet available for his short time in office, he has listed at least 72 people killed in actions against NSAGs on his social media accounts.

Often accompanied by the phrases “firm for the fatherland” and “the impunity is over,” photos and descriptions of those security forces have killed and captured make up the majority of his official statements, in fact.

One bombing carried out under de la Espriella’s orders killed three children who were present at an NSAG camp — an illegal action under Colombian law.

Colombia’s Defensoria has asked him to stop posing with corpses, warning that the Presidency should not “compete with armed groups over who instills the most fear, who humiliates the adversary the most, or who turns death into a display of power.”

Opposition politicians have also demanded an end to the practice. Body counts and images of those killed by Colombia’s military have a dark past, and for many conjure memories of the “false positives” cases, in which thousands of civilians were killed to inflate casualty statistics of rebel fighters during the country’s civil war.

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Milei is getting noisy over the Falklands; Trump has hinted he may support Argentina

Javier Milei in Argentina has been getting noisier and noisier over an old claim to the Malvinas, or the Falklands islands, though his version of events tends to be a bit revisionist.

During an interview with the British channel GB News, US President Donald Trump states that the U.S. would not back the UK. If Argentina again tried to stake its claim to the islands by force.

Trump stated that the UK “wasn’t there” for him in Iran, and again brought up NATO spending by the country, which he has long claimed is overpaid by the US.

Milei immediately seized on the comments by his US counterpart, and has stated repeatedly in recent days that the “winds of change” are coming for Argentina’s claim to the Malvinas.

In a 2013 referendum, residents of the islands voted overwhelmingly to remain a British overseas territory — with 99.8% voting in favour and just three voting against.

We’ll be talking about the dispute this week on Pirate Wire Radio. Tune in!

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Bombing attacks are on the rise in Mexico

Organized criminal groups in Mexico are increasingly using carbombs and drone explosives to conduct attacks on security forces and infrastructure. The devices, which were previously relatively uncommon in Mexico, mirror long-held tactics by NSAGs in Colombia.

So far in 2026, one state alone, Zacatecas, has reported more than 23 explosive attacks. The attacks have steadily risen in recent years, and as they reach new heights, they are likely to attract attention from the US administration of Trump, who has often criticized Mexico’s efforts against criminal groups domestically.

The US has openly admitted to carrying out CIA operations in Mexico, including the targeted killings of criminal figures. Trump has threatened to deploy the US military and drones against ‘cartels’ as well.

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Trump’s Venezuela oil deal is being panned across all aisles

The biggest story in the headlines this week is the oil deal in the works between the United States and Venezuela. The Venezuelan opposition, some members of Delcy Rodriguez’s own government, the international press, and most energy experts have all strongly criticized the deal. Even Bloomberg, a usually pro-private sector and market-friendly media company, has been tossing around the terms “neo-colonial” and “resource colony” in its descriptions of the deal, which would make the US the effective owner of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil.

Allies of US President Donad Trump, and Rodriguez herself, however, have held firm, describing the deal as “historic.” Trump has promised to use the newfound bonanza to refill US strategic petroleum reserves, which are at a historic low due to the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and the COVID pandemic.

But it will likely be at least a year, perhaps more, before Venezuelan infrastructure is rebuilt sufficiently to be a serious factor in US production.

In the meantime, criticism continues to roll in from very diverse sectors. One Venezuelan described the deal to PWS as “the greatest heist in Venezuelan history.”

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Former Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno convicted of corruption

Lenin Moreno, who held the presidency in Ecuador from 2017 to 2021, has been convicted of arranging bribes to associates and family members in return for giving the construction contract of a hydro-electric dam to a Chinese company.

The conviction will result in jail sentences for 19 individuals who benefitted from the deal, including Moreno’s wife, daughter, and brother.

Prosecutors alleged that the company, Sinohydro, which is owned by the Chinese state, paid a total of $76.1m through shell companies to people involved in the deal to secure the construction of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric dam.

Former plant managers, Sinohydro representatives and a Chinese ambassador to Ecuador were also convicted in the deal.

Moreno, who will serve the 5 years under house arrest, denies the charges. He is the third Ecuadorian president to be convicted of corruption in recent years.

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Abelardo goes to war in Colombia

Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella has officially ended formal talks with 3 Colombian armed groups. The measure affects negotiations with two splinter groups of the former FARC: Estado Mayor de Bloques y Frente(EMBF) and the Coordinadora Nacional Ejército Bolivariano (CNEB). It also brings an end to the process with the Autodefensas Conquistadores de la Sierra Nevada (ACSN), a group with paramilitary origins.

A bombing carried out by Colombian security forces also killed three children in Guaviare last week — provoking fierce criticisms from opposition parties in the country.

De la Espriella has invited US participation in operations within Colombia to battle the growing power of non-state and criminal armed groups, and promised to “eradicate” criminal activity through aggressive military measures which have often failed in the past.

Armed groups stepped up aggressive measures in response: drone attacks carried out byb NSAGs killed at least three police officers last week. Choco, which was heavily affected by earthquakes two weeks ago, is experiencing a rapid uptick in conflict as well, as the Colombian Gaitanista Army (EGC) — often termed the Gulf Clan in Western media — takes advantage of the chaos to push into regions currently controlled by ELN.

Abelardo wanted war. It seems like he has achieved his goal.

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The United States is in final talks to assume an effective ownership stake in Venezuelan oil fields, according to reporting by Axios and Bloomberg. Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez is also considering removing Venezuela from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The country was a founding member of the oil cartel along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait in 1960.

The deal would reportedly give the US a majority stake in the largest oil reserves on the planet — estimated at 90 billion barrels — and deal a symbolic blow to OPEC, which the US has long accused of collusion to control energy prices.

US President Donald Trump has wanted this since before the US invaded Venezuela in January and captured then-president Nicolas Maduro, according to administration officials who spoke with US media.

As Venezuelan oil production fell dramatically in recent years due to disrepair in the sector, the country was unable to participate in OPEC quotas. But its presence as the only OPEC country in the Western Hemisphere has been a point of irritation to the US for years.

Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright have reportedly been engaged in talks with Rodriguez and Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA for months.

The talks reportedly include a “100-year lease” on the majority of proven oil deposits within Venezuela, a contract that amounts to outright ownership, in return for investment by US private companies to restore oil production.

The reported deal has already been criticized by Venezuelans both within the Rodriguez government and the opposition as “entreguismo”: a strategy of submission, surrender, or “selling out”, in which the interests of a group or nation  are relinquished to external forces.

US officials are reportedly sensitive to the accusation. “We’re going out of our way to show how this will benefit the people of Venezuela, because it will,” one administration official told Axios.

Also part of the deal is a formal partnership between the US and Venezuela in long-term oil production benchmarks, a system that would effectively create a Western version of OPEC controlled by Washington, D.C.

The move, if it happens, could potentially create tension between the US and long-term ally Saudi Arabia, which could perceive the strategy as an economic attack by the US on Saudi Arabian interests, according to experts who spoke with Bloomberg.

The resource grab is the latest in a series of highly aggressive foreign policy policies being implemented across the Americas as part of Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine.”

OPEC has experienced internal tension in recent months, with Iraq often struggling to meet production quotas, and the United Arab Emirates repeatedly threatening to leave the organization.

The US is already the top oil-producing nation in the world, followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. US production in Venezuela would give it increased leverage over global energy markets and weaken the negotiating power of OPEC member countries, a particularly important geopolitical point given the difficulties faced by its ongoing war with Iran.

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Former Milei advisor accused of hiring a hit on his pregnant ex

Fernando Cerimedo, a former advisor to Javier Milei and regional right-wing election consultant, was arrested last week at Viru Viru Airport in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, and is under investigation following a shooting attack on Bolivian lawyer and activist Nadia Beller, whom the media have identified as his ex-partner.

Two men on a motorcycle shot Nadia Belle outside the hotel where she was staying in Santa Cruz. She survived the assassination attempt. Belle is with child, according to Argentinian media.

Cerimedo, who remains detained while an investigation unfolds, denies the accusation. It is the latest scandal for Milei in Argentina, who continues to endure corruption and graft investigations into multiple Ministers and appointees of his government.

Cerimedo is renowned for employing his digital “troll farm” to support right-wing candidates during elections across Latin America. He also worked for the campaign of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2022.

Cerimedo was convicted of fraud in Argentina. In 2016 he sold the same apartment to two people, trying to keep the money from both before being briefly arrested by police.

A conviction in the case would be merely the latest of people in Milei’s political orbit to face legal ramifications for questionable actions under his presidency.

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Noboa expands ban on opposition candidates in upcoming elections

In March, right-wing Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa rescheduled local elections — ostensibly because of El Niño or something — dissolved some opposition parties and canceled the registrations of many “Correistas” in elections now slated for November.

Ecuador’s National Election Council (which is packed with Noboa appointees), quickly acted to enforce the decision. At the time Noboa pushed back on accusations of a power-grab by stating that disqualified candidates “are free to register under other political parties.”

Many of them tried to do exactly that. Pachakutik, Ecuador’s principally indigenous political coalition, put aside historical differences with many Correista candidates by allowing them to run under their banner.

But this week, Ecuador’s election commission ruled their campaigns as invalid, removing them from the ballots.

“A lot of people have suggested that Noboa is attempting to consolidate power for his political coalition on a local level ahead of the next presidential elections,” Will Freeman, a fellow at the Council of Foreign affairs told PWS last week. “This accusation seems credible to me.”

Noboa’s government has used courts and a “state of emergency” to widely broaden the powers of the presidency, and now seems to be employing that power to engage in election manipulation. This story certainly bears watching in coming weeks and months.

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Colombia’s State Oil company is losing millions to theft by Armed Groups

Colombia’s new right-wing President, Abelardo de la Espriella, has vowed to “eradicate” criminal and non-state armed groups in the country. So far, however, he is off to a rocky start. (For more information about that , a conflict expert who has contributed work here at PWS, has an excellent summary this week.)

His latest fixation is on oil theft from Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol.

Ecopetrol has long been a target for armed groups, particularly in the eastern and southern regions of the country. Not coincidentally, many of the oil-rich areas in Colombia have also long been conflict zones.

Armed groups use taps to steal massive quantities of oil moving through pipelines in regions where state presence in weak, sometimes with help from corrupt Ecopetrol employees.

In the Venezuelan borderlands, the ELN also regularly carries out attacks on Ecopetrol infrastructure as a way to pressure Bogota, which is highly dependent on carbon exports to fund the state.

On Sunday, de la Espriella announced new operations to protect Ecopetrol, estimating that the state company loses 1.5 million barrels of oil a year to theft or loss from the actions of non-state armed groups.

Many presidents before him have tried to secure those oil pipelines. All have failed. Will his attempts be any different? At PWS, we usually don’t like to make predictions, but in this case we are relatively confident in saying “no.”

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An earthquake that struck Colombia last week has left more than 240 dead, though that number is still expected to rise as many rural areas on the Western coast remain out of contact due to collapsed power and internet. Three thousand 800 people remain missing.

​Colombia’s brand-new President, Abelardo De la Espriella, has been harshly criticized for the government response to the disaster. The right-wing firebrand, who had been in office only a few days when the earthquake struck, had appointed no personnel to Colombia’s disaster-response agency, nor many key Ministry positions.

​He cancelled traditional power-transfer procedures usually initiated by outgoing presidents after his predecessor, Gustavo Petro, declined to recognize his election victory.

​The confusion led to delayed responses and poor communication in the hours and days immediately following the disaster. Residents in the Pacific, as well as the city of Cali, have expressed anger at the actions he has taken, including handing out T-shirts from his election campaign and footballs to those whose houses have been destroyed.

​Reconstruction will be costly, and for de la Espriella — who promised to massively reduce state spending — disaster response presents a critical challenge to his political agenda.

​Perhaps more importantly, however, are those left homeless in areas of the Pacific coast that have long been neglected by the central government in Bogotá. Anger is building, especially in Chocó, a predominantly African-Colombian department where De la Espriella had little electoral support.

​“The Tiger” is looking more like a kitten as he scrambles to recover, but mini-scandals keep surfacing, such as photos of his Housing Minister on vacation in Santa Marta as affected residents dig through the rubble of their destroyed homes.

​After a razor-thin victory margin in elections, de la Espriella already had a questionable mandate. He may have already ruined his slim opportunities for a honeymoon.

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Venezuelan negotiations

The Venezuelan government says they are releasing 131 political prisoners as part of talks with opposition politicians about reforms and possible elections. It is unclear what else negotiations involve, but a statement from the government alluded to judicial reforms of a court that Maduro packed with loyalists while he was in power.

Both sides committed to “initiate a process that contributes to the transformation of the justice system”, including “Reforms to the Organic Law” of Venezuela’s top court, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ).

​The government of interim-president Delcy Rodriguez has faced increased pressure after its own bungled response to earthquakes more than a month ago. Though Trump has made clear he supports the Rodriguez presidency, domestic politicians, including in her own party, have ramped up criticism of her administration in recent weeks.

​It isn’t completely clear what concrete results, if any, the current negotiations will yield. More than 200 political prisoners remain jailed, and the government has often used releases as a bargaining chip.

Both sides also agreed to request that funds long frozen by the Bank of England be released for use in earthquake reconstruction. The twin earthquakes have left at least 6,000 people dead.

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​

President Abelardo de la Espriella was sworn in in Colombia’s third largest city, Cali, under extreme security precautions.

De la Espriella was sworn in by the president of Congress, Senator Honorio Henriquez of the far-right Democratic Center party in the theater of the private University of Santiago de Cali.

The first part of the ceremony was attended by the Spanish King Felipe VI, multiple heads of state from Latin America and more than 60 ambassadors.

After being sworn in, Abelardo and his cabinet will go to Cali’s Pichincha Battalion to assume the supreme command of the armed forces.

Both ceremonies were boycotted by the leftist political party of former President Gustavo Petro, which organized political rallies elsewhere in Cali, and in the cities of Bogota and Barranquilla.

In Barranquilla, Pacto Historico Senator Ivan Cepeda stressed the left does not recognize the incoming government because of De la Espriella’s US citizenship and his alleged debts with the US Department of Justice.

“De la Espriella, who once acted as an intermediary for drug traffickers and paramilitaries—from whose ill-gotten gains he has profited—has now become a figure who will be pressured by the United States, by his own government, and by its federal agencies to allow all kinds of foreign intervention in Colombia,” said Cepeda.

The leftist senator lost the elections to De la Espriella with a razor-thin margin of less than one percent. Some of his supporters continue to seek a court order to nullify the results.

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Netanyahu and Milei endorse Jair Bolsonaro’s son for President at election launch

Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of far-right former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, celebrated the official launch of his presidential campaign with an event in Sao Paulo Sunday night.

He will be challenging current left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in elections in October.

The event featured endorsements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentinian President Javier Milei. Milei sparked an international incident when he referred to current president Lula as a “thief” and a “convict,” causing Brazil to withdraw its ambassadors in Buenos Aires.

Flavio currently trails Lula in polls as he continues to fight back scandals in the country.

Flavio’s father – currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for a coup attempt following his loss to Lula in 2022 – was present at the convention only in the form of a video made with AI.

US President Donald Trump, long an ally of the Bolsonaro family, is also expected to endorse Flavio. In recent days, US officials have cast doubts on the legitimacy of Brazilian elections, repeating false accusations made by both Jair and Flavio Bolsonaro.

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Colombian President-elect Espriella will join “the Shield of the Americas”

Ultra-right wing Abelardo de la Espriella has announced Medellin as the headquarters for Colombian membership in the US-led Shield of the Americas — a security and political alliance launched by U.S. President Donald Trump in March.

The initiative, formed exclusively of right-wing governments, includes initiatives to encourage sharing intelligence, coordinating of law enforcement, and using joint military force against drug cartels and transnational crime.

The announcement followed calls between De la Espriella, US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump endorsed de la Espriella in elections that he won by less than 1%.

De la Espriella also announced a “Plan Patriota 2.0”, a military crackdown on non-state armed groups and organized crime modelled after an identically named US-backed military strategy that was implemented by former President Alvaro Uribe between 2003 and 2006.

De la Espriella’s “iron fist” policies will be a big story to watch in coming months and years. The president-elect assumes leadership of Colombia in August.

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JOH back in Honduras after Trump pardon

Former President Juan Orlando Hernandez returned to Honduras this week after being pardoned by Donald Trump after being convicted of narco-trafficking and sentenced to 45 years in a US prison.

He was extradited for his role in cocaine smuggling during his time as president, and was extradited to the US four years ago. He is also accused in Honduras of fraud and money-laundering.

Trump claims that Hernandez did not receive a fair trial under former US President Joe Biden. Hernandez claims Biden “fabricated” the charges that got him convicted in a federal court in New York City.

Hernandez is expected to appear in court on August 3 to face the Honduran charges

But most analysts expect the charges to be dropped due to his powerful allies in Honduras

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The other big stories in LATAM

• Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has accused the United States of carrying out a “political genocide” against his people and seeking to seize the Caribbean island nation. The US has imposed an oil embargo that has produced regular blackouts and economic hardship: including in hospitals.

• Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will finally face trial in the US next June on charges of weapon and drug sales along with his wife. Both deny the charges. Maduro's attorney argues that the couple have sovereign immunity, which makes any actions they undertook as part of governing Venezuela irrelevant to US criminal law.

• Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega promised last week to ban all opposition parties from elections in the country. This week, lawmakers will debate the initiative, but Nicaragua's National Assembly is dominated by Ortega’s party, and largely rubber-stamps his decrees.

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Lord Marco Rubio, Viceroy of Venezuela

​A story this week by the New York Times divulged details about the relationship between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez. Rubio controls all money dispensed by the US to Venezuela, a leverage he uses, along with the implicit threat that the US removed her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, to control even minor decisions made by the government there.

​Details of their communications include Rodriguez asking for Rubio’s approval on even routine official statements, such as praising US President Donald Trump for US rescue efforts following twin earthquakes in the city.

​The report also offers further evidence that Rodriguez was aware of US plans to capture Nicolas Maduro before they were carried out, and promised full cooperation with US rule.

​In Washington, senior officials in the Trump administration jokingly refer to Rubio as the “viceroy” of Venezuela — a term used by governors in Latin America who represented the interests of Spain when the region was largely Spanish colonies.

​The nickname may have been given in jest, but Venezuela is indeed now the protectorate nation of the United States, as the US demonstrates that modern colonialism is alive and well.

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Criminal Armed groups push into protected state parks in Ecuador

​Illegal mining has soared in Ecuador in recent years, especially in Amazonian regions in the country’s interior. Criminal armed groups have increasingly turned to mining to diversify their income streams in the country, which previously relied completely on extortion and cocaine smuggling.

​The illegal mining has even pushed into protected state parks and wilderness reserves. Park rangers find themselves unable to enter vast regions of the country they used to protect, and sometimes even detained by criminal groups Los Lobos, Los Choneros, Los Galarza and Los Sao Box —  a former faction of Los Lobos.

​“Iron fist” security policies imposed by Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa have failed to stem the growth of criminality in the country, though they have resulted in numerous human rights violations against the civilian population.

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Mexico demands criminal investigations into DHS personnel

Mexican Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco announced on Thursday that they will request a formal investigation into the cases of 14 Mexicans who have died while in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and another three during ICE “arrest operations”.

The demand carries no legal weight. It will be submitted to the US Department of Justice, which is controlled by the Trump administration.

Mexico seeks criminal charges for the deaths, especially the recent high-profile shooting of Mexican national Lorenzo Salgado Araujo by DHS officials in Houston.

Mexico has sent similar requests before through diplomatic channels. The formal request to the US Department of Justice marks an escalation.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday criticized “the human rights violations” of Mexican citizens in the US.

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As Colombia’s ultra-right President-elect prepares to take power, details about his agenda are finally emerging

As Colombia prepares to transfer presidential powers to President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, the ultra-right-wing populist is finally starting to release details of campaign promises that were often so vague as to be almost meaningless.

​In recent days, he has promised an expansion of military numbers, which, as PWS has reported before, are stretched to their limits, currently carrying out operations against non-state armed groups (NSAGs).

​To that end, de la Espriella has promised to reinstate mandatory military service in the country. “Here we need committed people, people of conviction. When the homeland calls upon its good children, we must step forward,” said De La Espriella in recent public comments.

​He offered an ultimatum to criminal groups in the country to stand down or be “crushed.” None have taken him up on his offer. The aggressive military strategies de la Espriella wants to implement have failed for decades, and NSAGs seem to be betting that they can outlast his presidency.

​He also plans to ramp up oil production via cooperation with US companies and by permitting fracking in the country.

​Current leftist President Gustavo Petro has sharply criticized the move, which runs contrary to his vision of the country as a potential bastion of clean energy. Petro is cooperating with the transition of power, but has publicly stated that he will not recognize de la Espriella as president.

​Following the elections, which de la Espriella won by less than 1%, Petro alleged fraud in the process. He offered no proof of his claims, and the accusation was not repeated by leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda.

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As the US continues to throttle Cuba, blackouts worsen

Cuba suffered another island-wide blackout this week, the third since 2026 began. The country continues to struggle with fuel shortages as a result of the naval blockade imposed by the US.

By Monday evening, despite attempts by the state-owned energy company to continue providing electricity at least to hospitals, only 1% of the capital had power on Monday evening.

The fuel shortages have created a humanitarian emergency in the country as well as an economic one. Rolling blackouts have decimated tourism and made even food production impossible.

Trump has pointed to the invasion of Venezuela and the removal of its then-president Nicolas Maduro, as a possible blueprint for Cuba. He has sometimes contradicted himself on this count as well, however, and suggested that there may be room for negotiation.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel accused the US of trying to “incite social unrest by strangling Cuba’s fuel supply”.

International rescue teams have left Venezuela, now comes the aftermath

The confirmed death toll continues to rise in Venezuela as residents dig through rubble searching for loved ones, friends, and neighbors. International rescue teams have left the country, with few expected survivors so long after the initial disaster.

But humanitarian needs continue. Tens of thousands of Venezuelans are sleeping in parks and public spaces and large portions of affected areas still lack water and electricity.

The United Nations now estimates $37 billion in direct property damage. UNICEF warns that the full fallout from the crisis has yet to reveal itself, and estimates that more than a quarter of a million children will be in need in coming months.

The US has promised more aid, following $300 million it has promised to pay for immediate rescue relief. That number is a drop in the bucket.

Whether US President Trump, who has often bragged about how much money the US is earning in Venezuela, is willing to fund a true reconstruction in the country remains to be seen.

But the US has made it clear they back current interim-president Delcy Rodriguez, who the US installed after capturing Maduro.

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