Any new government in Venezuela would find hostile actors on their doorsteps
A plethora of armed groups in the borderlands are capable of sowing chaos, but for the ELN, resistance would be personal
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The pressure campaign by the administration of Donald Trump to force Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has dominated international news cycles and the world’s imagination, for good or for bad. Though the White House has seemed at times to de-escalate or issue false ultimatums.
According to Reuters, Trump rejected an offer by Maduro to step down in exchange for immunity and for allowing Chavista officials to serve as an interim government until elections could be organized, in addition to other demands.
The White House reportedly gave Maduro a week to leave office or be removed — a stipulation that the Venezuelan President ignored.
The US has spoken openly of escalation to ground strikes to remove Maduro from office, though for the moment, Trump seems content with bombing alleged drug boats in the Caribbean.
It isn’t clear whether the US will succeed in removing Maduro or whether his government will collapse as well if they do. Plenty of critics have pointed out the challenges and instability that would likely follow Maduro fleeing the country, or (much less likely) being killed.
Short of a ground invasion by the US, there is no guarantee that power would fall to opposition politicians. A more probable outcome is another Chavista leader simply picks up the reins and Venezuela stumbles onwards, more oppressive than ever.
Media has been awash in game theory and speculation about what a successful intervention might look like. Much more lacking, however, is an explanation about how whoever follows Maduro will contend with the plethora of non-state armed actors in the country, particularly in the Colombian borderlands.
How are those groups likely to react to a new government? That depends on a lot of factors. In a situation where the military doesn’t support a US-installed government in Caracas, Colombian armed groups like leftist rebel group the National Liberation Army (ELN) would be all too happy to expand into the power vacuum, as they have effectively done in Colombia.