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Climate Migration is already happening: it doesn't have to be a disaster

Climate Migration is already happening: it doesn't have to be a disaster

World governments are woefully unprepared for what's coming, but there's still time to change course

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Joshua Collins
May 01, 2024
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Climate Migration is already happening: it doesn't have to be a disaster
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This is an installment of the “Ship’s Log” series, more personal entries on the beats we cover for paid subscribers.

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Mass climate migration is coming. In fact, it has already begun. Climate change, both direct and indirect, is already a push factor in a growing global migration.

The number of migrants worldwide has doubled over the past decade— and that pace further accelerated in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic as less wealthy economies remained stagnated in recession or suffer inflation due to slow economic growth. And migrants who have been forced to leave their homes due to extreme weather events, or because previously arable land has become barren due to drought or flooding, is already increasing. 

As climate change makes both phenomena more common, those numbers are going to greatly increase over the next decades.

The UN International Organization for Migration has cited estimates of as many as 1 billion climate migrants in the next 30 years. Other projections point to 1.2 billion by 2050, and 1.4 billion by 2060. And those migrants will be largely fleeing equatorial zones, which will be the hardest hit by global warming, though they will be far from the only regions affected.

Climate change hot zones, also known as “hotspots,” refer to regions that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These areas are projected to experience significant changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, and other climate-related factors.

As I write these words, less than 1% of the world is a barely livable hot zone. By 2070, that number is expected to rise to 19%.

Latin America, especially Central America and the northern countries of South America are already particularly hard hit by the fallout of climate change. Although Latin America and the Caribbean only generate 10% of greenhouse gas emissions, the region suffers the worst effects of global warming in the world.

Precipitation patterns are shifting, temperatures are rising, and some areas are experiencing changes in the frequency and severity of weather extremes such as heavy rains. The impacts range from melting Andean glaciers to devastating floods and droughts. 

Mexico City and Bogotá are both currently suffering severe water shortages that have led to rationing. Honduras and Guatemala are already seeing crop failures on previously fertile land, and Guajira, an indigenous region that stretches across the borders of Colombia and Venezuela, has experienced desertification due to long-term droughts that have left residents without potable water.

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