Is the US really going to bomb Venezuela?
If you had asked me a month ago, I would have responded, “Absolutely not.” Now I’m not so certain
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A little over a month ago, if you had asked me if Trump was going to conduct some sort of military operation inside Venezuela, I would have responded, “Absolutely not.”
Now I’m not so certain. I still lean towards “no”, but several recent revelations have softened my hard skepticism. We all know US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spent decades dreaming of the opportunity. But while Trump seems to be granting Rubio wide latitude in several other Latin American countries, a military strike within Venezuela itself is clearly something US President Donald Trump would have final say on.
And Trump himself has been highly critical of his last failed effort to topple Maduro in 2019, claiming in multiple public statements that “Bolton was swindled” by opposition figures, who promised all it would take was a nudge to dislodge Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power.
Revelations this week that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller is pushing for regime change, as well as other top Trump advisors, however, are making me stop and reconsider.
Miller has also reportedly been very hands-on in the process of targeting boats in international waters, the first of which is increasingly looking like it was piloted by simple fishermen. Historically, Miller has not exactly been a man who cares about things like the consequences of his actions.
He also has an outsized influence on Trump, and a pulse for what he can sell to Trump’s base. Trump’s base was, initially, one of the factors that made me doubt the mini-armada off Venezuela’s coast was much more than an expensive show.
Many of his voters strongly and vocally oppose major military interventions abroad (though seem fine with actions like lobbing a missile or a few drone strikes).
As the US-Venezuela standoff goes on, and as we learn more about what’s happening, I often find myself with more questions than answers. So perhaps it’s best to start with what I do know, and counter some false narratives that seem to have gained momentum in recent weeks.