Maduro's third term after fraudulent elections puts Colombia's Petro in the hot seat
A lack of comms discipline and mixed messaging is drawing criticism at home and abroad at a time when clarity is paramount
Nicolas Maduro successfully assumed office in his third consecutive term as President of Venezuela on Friday, January 10. The inauguration went smoothly, though rushed, providing a sharp contrast to the chaos of previous days, which included crackdowns on civil society, conflicting reports about the detention of opposition vice-presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado, and arrests of opposition politicians and staff.
Edmundo Gonzales, the opposition candidate who likely won the popular vote in elections widely accused of being fraudulent, spent the days leading up to the ceremony traveling around Latin America and meeting with current and former heads of state.
He had promised to return on January 10 and reclaim the office. However, he seemingly changed his mind at the last minute, instead spending the day in the Dominican Republic.
But how will a third Maduro government fare in terms of relations with other countries in the Americas?
For close allies like Nicaragua and Cuba, who have long been diplomatically isolated from their neighbors, dynamics are unlikely to change. However, for less unconditional allies like Bolivia, Colombia, and Brazil, the panorama is much less certain.
Colombia’s mixed messages
Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president in modern history, sent a confusing series of signals in the months leading up to Maduro’s third term. At times he has supported Maduro, often calling for an end to U.S. sanctions which have exacerbated an economic collapse caused by mismanagement and deep corruption.
During his election campaign, Petro called Maduro a dictator, but since assuming office he has taken a more pragmatic approach with Venezuela, which shares a 1,380-mile-long border with Colombia.
At times, Petro has attempted through public statements to play the role of “peacemaker” between Venezuela and the U.S., but his messaging has been inconsistent.
The day before the inauguration, Petro stated on his social media, “We cannot recognize elections that were not free, and we hope that they can be held soon without blockades or internal intimidation … “Staying in power and giving away oil seems to be the proposal of various factions of U.S. politics. In my personal case, I will never accept such a proposal,” said Petro.
However, Petro asserted that his government won’t break diplomatic relations with Maduro’s Venezuela. On January 9, he also denied reports that Machado was detained by Venezuelan forces, calling them “fake news”.
The following day he suggested that fraudulent elections were the fault of U.S. sanctions rather than the Maduro government, a confusing hypothesis at best. He called for new elections— a suggestion that seemed to be strongly rejected by both Maduro and opposition leaders.
The Country’s Foreign Ministry presents a more even hand
Colombia’s Foreign Minister, Luis Gilberto Murillo, has offered a steadier and more disciplined series of statements that paint how Colombia is likely to move forward regarding Maduro. On January 9, in a public speech, Murillo “condemned” Venezuelan elections “in the strongest possible terms”, describing them as “in no way free”.
However, Murillo repeated assertions by Petro that Colombia would not break diplomatic relations with Venezuela, saying such a move would “serve no purpose”. He pointed to 2019, when then-President Ivan Duque severed ties with Venezuela amidst an unsuccessful bid to remove Maduro.
At the time, smuggling activity of both goods and people by criminal armed groups in the borderlands skyrocketed, as did violence. The closure greatly empowered criminal groups in both countries, such as the ELN and the “Tren de Aragua”, and fighting amongst them, in turn, placed migrants and residents alike in extreme danger.
Murders in the “trochas”, the hundreds of smuggling trails that cross the Venezuelan-Colombian border, rose dramatically. These deaths occurred far from the analysts in Bogotá, Washington D.C, and Miami currently calling for more aggressive Colombian actions against Maduro, and seem not to weigh heavily on their minds currently.
Petro has made “Total Peace” a central part of his administration, and empowering them via border closures runs directly contrary to those goals. In the past, ELN and FARC dissident groups in particular used Venezuela as a shield and a zone of control that Colombian forces cannot enter.
Maduro has survived ‘Maximum Pressure’ before
During his presidency, Duque hoped that a “Maximum Pressure” campaign against Venezuela in conjunction with Washington would dislodge Maduro. It did not. His calls over the past few days for a “military intervention” are equally unlikely to succeed.
In one sense, Maduro is more isolated now than he has ever been before. Some sources within Venezuela suggest that there are fissures even within Chavismo itself. I believe those reports. Maduro is less popular within Venezuela than he has ever been. Nonetheless, I’ve been covering Venezuela for nearly a decade and I’ve heard these divisions can be exploited before. That analysis was wrong.
Maduro has been consistently underestimated by his international enemies, and he has survived several extremely coordinated attempts to remove him.
The elections in Venezuela, which according to ballots collected by the opposition Maduro lost by a large margin, have been roundly condemned by the international community.
Petro, however, does himself no favors by making false claims and falling prey to undisciplined messaging. It is possible to maintain channels of communication with Venezuela without acting as an apologist for the human rights violations of a dictatorial regime.
The Ship’s Log
Since this is our second installment this week, we’re skipping the usual headlines, writings and other sections. We’d also like to apologize for three typos in Friday’s live coverage of Venezuela. Joshua got up at 4:30 a.m., an ungodly hour, to start monitoring events and in a rush misspelled Maria Corina Machado’s name on at least two instances. The error was quickly corrected on the website, but unfortunately, there is no editing emails that have already gone out.
We apologize and promise to drink more coffee before hitting “send” in the future.
We’ll be back again next week with the usual format. Thanks as always, piratas and hasta pronto!
Congratulations 𝙹𝚘𝚜𝚑𝚞𝚊 on your 𝚞𝚗𝚋𝚒𝚊𝚜𝚎𝚍 report, but I must point out that Gonzalez's victory is not apparent. Ample evidence has been provided through 80% of the "𝚊𝚌𝚝𝚊𝚜" collected by witnesses at the polling stations. This has not been denied by the CNE, which has the 𝚕𝚎𝚐𝚊𝚕 obligation to publish the disaggregated results and has not yet done so.