Right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed polls in the first-round of Brazilian elections against his progressive opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula. Flavio heads into the second-round runoff the clear and resounding favorite.
With 97% of the vote counted, Flavio (47.4%) led Lula (44.8%) by almost 3 points.
The election is widely being regarded as bellwether in South America, not only because of a series of right-wing victories in the region, but Lula was one of the last leaders in Latin America not openly subservient to the interests of the United States.
Flavio has promised closer ties with Washington D.C, and to favor western companies in the country’s considerable mining sector, which includes rare–earth mineral deposits critical to arms and electronics manufacturing.
Rare-earth minerals have increasingly become a US strategic priority in recent years.
For many Brazilians, however, worries about US influence go well beyond the mining sector. The administration of US President Donald Trump is carrying out increasingly aggressive military actions across the region, including bombings, assassinations, and even invading Venezuela in January to capture then-president Nicolas Maduro.
The US has made it clear that they prefer Flavio in office. In addition to diplomatic and economic attacks on the country, and Brazil’s judiciary, Washington has sanctioned Brazilian officials, endorsed right-wing candidates in down-ballot races, and even announced $100 million in funding for organizations opposed to Brazil’s Supreme Court.
The court became a target for both the Brazilian far-right and Washington after the conviction of Flavio’s father, the now-disgraced Jair Bolsonaro, for an attempted coup after he lost the presidential election to Lula in 2022.
Lula’s campaign has warned that a Flavio victory would result in Brazil effectively becoming a U.S “protectorate,”an accusation that is difficult to dispute.
Right wing parties also swept national elections, and are now the largest coalitions in both the Senate and National Assembly.
The race will go to a second and final round in three weeks.
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