Petro finally has a ceasefire with ELN, what comes next?
The accord is a much-needed victory in a process that has been plagued by setbacks
Before we jump into this week’s feature, which breaks down the details on a new ceasefire between the Colombian government and the largest rebel group in the country, we would like to take a moment to celebrate some rare positive news.
A group of indigenous siblings, lost in the Colombian jungle for more than 40 days after surviving a plane wreck, have been found! The children, who are 13, 9, 4, and 1 years old, survived off of fruit and built improvised shelters for more than a month before being rescued by a dual operation conducted by the military and Colombia’s Indigenous Guard.
They were flown to a hospital in Bogota Saturday morning to be assessed by medical workers, and treated for malnutrition.
But the real hero of the story remains missing. Wilson, a search canine, was separated from his search group during the operation but apparently found the lost children after being lost himself.
Rescuers say his footprints led them to the children, and were key in their discovery. Wilson however, apparently ran off again after finding the children.
“There are a lot of animals in the jungle that could intimidate our boy,” said a Colombian soldier on his disappearance, “from jaguars, to crocodiles. Any one of them may have caused Wilson to flee.”
Colombians triumphantly celebrated the rescue of the children on social media. The case has dominated headlines since the children disappeared. Many celebrated the joint effort between indigenous and military rescuers as well, hoping that it can be an example of cooperation between communities that have sometimes been at odds.
As for Wilson, the army has vowed to continue the search, saying in public statements that “No comando will be left behind.”
May our collective Colombian good-boy make it home safely.
And now, onto our feature!
Petro finally has a ceasefire with ELN, what comes next?
The accord is a much-needed victory in a process that has been plagued by setbacks
President Petro Gustavo, after 10 months and a series of stumbles and setbacks, finally has a symbolic victory in his “Total Peace” plan for Colombia— a bi-lateral ceasefire with the largest remaining rebel group in the country, the National Liberation Army (ELN).
The third round of peace talks in Havana between the Colombian government and the ELN ended on Friday, June 9. Negotiators from both sides, as well as the Colombian president, signed an agreement that provides a basic roadmap to peace-building, that included a 180-day ceasefire set to begin on August 3rd.
"This is a victory against violence," said Petro, in a speech from the negotiating table. "There is no action more revolutionary than peace."
The negotiators formally called on citizens to take part in the peace process via local tables meant to bring them into the process and incorporate them into peace-building efforts.
The ceasefire will be monitored by officials from the United Nations Colombian Mission, a step that Elizabeth Dickinson, senior Colombia analyst for the International Crisis Group says “is key to ensuring the signing parties can maintain trust [in one another], and also that communities can trust in the agreement.”
The agreement represents a much-needed symbolic victory for Petro, whose administration has been rocked by scandal and cabinet shakeups, and whose domestic reform agenda lies for the moment stymied in Congress.
In January, the president took to Twitter to announce a ceasefire with the ELN that seemingly never existed, and informal ceasefires with other criminal groups have quickly fallen apart. Meanwhile, violence in the countryside— where a host of armed groups hold power — has continued to rise.
The ELN is the oldest remaining rebel group in the country, founded by radical Catholic Marxist priests in 1964. Previous talks, across various administrations, have broken down in the past.
But despite recent stumbles in the peace process, the deal inspired cautious optimism among experts here.
“In many ways, this accord is historically unprecedented,” said Camilo Gonzalez Posso, president of Indepaz, a human rights watchdog organization.
“It includes guarantees of humanitarian efforts in zones that have previously been difficult to access, as well as a signed agreement that provides a roadmap of monitoring and enforcement protocols. I have great hope that this is a first step towards real peace.”
How will it work?
The government on Friday said that kidnappings and extortion by ELN would violate the ceasefire. But Pablo Beltrán, in comments after the ceremony, told the local press “The government inaccurately calls our legitimate taxation ‘extortion’. For now, our financial operations will continue. As we move forward in the process, this may change.”
When asked specifically about kidnappings, he responded, “We haven’t spoken about kidnapping. Detentions however will continue if they are necessary. This issue has not been addressed by the committee.”
The armistice, rather than regional as first proposed by Petro, will be nationwide, and cover all of the territories where ELN currently maintains a presence.
The accord also guarantees that the Colombian state and NGOs will be able to provide humanitarian aid in sectors that have long been inaccessible, such as Chocó.
At the signing ceremony, the chief negotiator for the government, Otty Patiño, also spoke of creating an independent media company, to be funded and run by the U.N., for the express purpose of covering progress in peace-building. Further information on that idea is not yet available.
Clarification on enforcement, and what would constitute a violation of the bilateral ceasefire will be continued after negotiation representatives from the ELN talk to regional commanders. The leadership structure of the rebel group is not vertical, and regional commanders maintain a degree of autonomy in the regions they control.
PWS reviewed the signed agreement published by both parties, and there is no clause stating that ELN fighting other armed groups would constitute a violation— an important dynamic as the vast majority of fighting occurs between armed groups themselves rather than with state security forces.
And AGC, the largest criminal paramilitary group in Colombia, has been actively advancing into ELN-controlled territory. Some experts have speculated this may be a motive for ELN to negotiate disarmament with the government.
But alongside hope, there are also doubts
“The concern is that a national ceasefire allows [ELN] to expand to new areas knowing the military will not engage in offensive operations,” said Dickinson in a series of tweets explaining the armistice.
Andrés Rojo Silvas, a coca farmer in Catatumbo, a region firmly controlled by ELN, cautiously welcomed the ceasefire but added “For our community, this accord doesn’t affect the dynamics of daily life. There is no state here. There are no confrontations between the state and ELN because there are no state forces.”
He called the accord “a symbolic first step,” but lamented that “Everyone keeps saying that communities need to be included in peace-building. But so far, that has not at all been the case where I live.”
Opposition politicians have, predictably, attacked Petro for “negotiating with terrorists”.
Multiple organizations, including Indepaz and PARES, a peace-monitoring group, have welcomed an approach that moves away from the failed military strategies of previous administrations.
But alongside that optimism, many worry that much like the previous process in 2016, with the FARC, implementation may be problematic, and some ELN groups may eventually splinter from the process.
"We cannot repeat old stories, we have had many "Peace" processes that have only led to demobilization and disarmament,” said Antonio Garcia, an ELN commander, at the signing ceremony. “The guerrillas demobilize and persecution continues. This peace process must be different.”
Almost 1,500 FARC signatories have been killed since the 2016 peace accord between the leftist rebel group and the Colombian government.
For Petro however, the agreement is the first concrete victory on the road to his promised peace. But ELN has proven in the past they can be fickle when it comes to implementation.
We at PWS hope very much that the peace process will play out differently this time.
The Big Headlines in LATAM
Wilson!!! Did we mention Wilson!? Find Wilson!
What we’re reading and wished we weren’t
An article by the Economist that called Latin America “the land of the useless workers” generated a LOT of criticism in Latin America, for obvious reasons. The headline has since been retracted. But if you like to torture yourself, you can find the archived piece here (and liberated from paywalls).
We recommend moving on with your day instead, however.
Spanish Word of the Week
Wilsoooooooon! hahah. Just kidding. We’re just really sad about the best good boy ever. The real word is Sesear
Meaning: Speaking with Latin American pronunciation (especially the sounds for “c” and “s” which Latin Americans would claim Spaniards do with a lisp)
There are many differences between Latin American and European Spanish. Perhaps the most noticeable difference is in how the two continents pronounce their c’s and z’s.
In Spain, these two letters are pronounced with a lisped “th” sound. In Latin America, on the other hand, these letters sound identical to an “s.”
Interestingly, using this verb in a sentence, with an accent from Spain, can sound really funny.
Estás Seseando demasiado— Essssstássss SSSSetheando demathiado
If you are reading this from Spain, we’re just kidding. It’s all in good fun. <3
Thanks as always for reading Piratas!
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Wilsooooon! \o/
Congratulations, very clear and inspiring