Petro isn't having much more luck than his predecessors in peace-building
Less than a third of promised investments have arrived to conflict zones, and affected communities are losing patience
More than 1,600 social leaders have been killed in Colombia since 2016, the year Colombia’s more than half-century civil war ended, at least officially, when the government signed a peace treaty with rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
It is the most dangerous country in the world for environmental activists and suffered more than 30 massacres in the first 6 months of 2024.
Violence has even recently touched the family members of some of the most powerful politicians in the country. On June 16, the car carrying the father and nephew of Francia Marquez, Vice President of Colombia, was attacked by gunmen in the Valle de Cauca region near the Pacific coast on June 16. The country’s Prosecution office announced on Wednesday that a formal investigation had been officially launched and that they “hope to have answers soon”.
The armored car fled the scene and neither target was injured in the attack, which occurred in the context of a military offensive in the region against rebel group EMC— which has carried out dozens of asymmetrical attacks in recent weeks on police stations, military targets, and government offices.
Most scholars refer to the period following the signing of the FARC peace deal as the “post-accord period” rather than “post-conflict”— a term that recognizes that the Colombian conflict is very much ongoing.
President Gustavo Petro, himself a former member of leftist rebel group M-19, won election in 2022 in part on promises to finally bring “Total Peace” to a country still suffering the after-effects of a 53-year civil war.
But despite his promises, armed groups have continued to grow exponentially, measured both in membership numbers and territory held, and violence, especially in rural areas controlled by criminal armed groups, has only grown.
As part of the 2016 peace deal with the FARC, the government of then-president Juan Manuel Santos promised to invest in communities that had been neglected for decades by governments in Bogotá— many of which had turned to illicit economies under FARC control.
After the government broke its promises to invest in civil society in the areas most affected by conflict from the civil war, a host of existing and new armed groups have expanded into the power vacuum left behind when FARC fighters disarmed en masse.
Petro's predecessor, Iván Duque, dismantled large aspects of the peace agreement, preferring military to social solutions. Petro promised to change that but has so far been unwilling, or unable to.
As of mid-2023, the University of Notre Dame, which tracks the implementation of peace promises made by the government, estimated that only one-third of investment programs had been implemented.
Colombia’s conflict continues unabated because the root causes have never been addressed. Communities are dependent upon illicit economies due to a lack of infrastructure or economic opportunities.
And though the Colombian government currently has a bi-lateral ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the largest remaining rebel group in the country, Petro has also resorted to the failed military strategies of his predecessors against other armed criminal groups like EMC and AGC.
Petro’s domestic agenda, including peace investments, is stalled in Congress, where his party no longer has a majority coalition. He has blamed center and right-wing parties for blocking his investment programs in public speeches, but even in areas where he has the executive power to implement reform have seen little progress, such as providing security for social leaders, who continue to be killed with impunity.
“A successful implementation of the Final Agreement has the potential to set a standard against which current and future peace processes will be measured in Colombia, as well as internationally,” said the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres in April.
He called on the government to fulfill its promises as well as provide security for social leaders across the country. “This will require faster and more comprehensive actions that translate its vision into transformative changes.”
Petro’s strategy has been focused on ceasefires and negotiations with criminal armed groups in return for their disarmament— a strategy that has at times yielded political progress, but translated to very little improvement on the ground for the communities who live in areas plagued by violence.
“The ceasefire with protocols and commitments to respect the civilian population has meant a de-escalation of confrontations” between the military and armed groups, said Camilo González Posso, director of Indepaz, which monitors peace implementation in the country., “But there is an increase in those between illegal armed groups. In some regions, there is a notable increase in illicit economies, extortion, and armed subordination of individuals and organizations.”
Meanwhile, attacks in Cauca and Valle de Cauca are growing, and the largest criminal group in the country, AGC, continues to consolidate its power.
In recent days Petro has floated the idea of bypassing Congress and initiating investments via presidential decree, but it is not immediately clear that the executive branch has the power over finances that Petro is claiming it does. He will no doubt face challenges from opposition parties.
So far, Petro has few concrete achievements towards ending the cycle of conflict in Colombia or addressing its root causes in the communities that are plagued by it. With less than two years left in office, the clock is ticking.
But without tangible progress, it is possible that whoever comes after him abandons negotiations with criminal groups in favor of military strategies that have failed in the past. Right-wing parties are already clamoring for exactly that.
The Big Headlines in LATAM
Ecuador was hit on Thursday by a national blackout which left residents without power for several hours. The country has been suffering outages and supply shortages for months, which has led to rationing in large cities, but this is the first time the entire national grid collapsed.
Drought conditions have exacerbated power shortages but Ecuador’s Energy Minister also blamed “mismanagement” and “a lack of investment” for the collapse. The country imports most of its energy from neighboring Colombia, which is also experiencing water shortages that have led to water rationing in the capital city of Bogotá.
Mexico is reeling from a heatwave that is currently afflicting the eastern half of North America. The country on Friday recorded temperatures of 52°C (125.6°F), the highest ever since records have been kept. The heat has also led to migrant deaths on the U.S. border, particularly in Arizona.
Meanwhile, drought conditions in Central and Southern Mexico have left many towns without water, and even the capital imposing rationing in some neighborhoods.
The Ship’s Log
Joshua remains temporarily in Medellin as he seeks new permanent lodging. He has been hard at work filing stories in the meantime. There are quite a few in the pipeline, including new research on the Darien Gap, and a piece examining climate migration— a trend that will only grow in the near future.
But the downtime in a fresh setting, spent mostly writing and reading, has been a refreshing change of pace, and given him time to think about where PWS goes next.
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Spanish Word of the Week
Pola- Beer
Pola o miedo? - Want a beer or are you scared?
In Colombian slang, beer is often referred to as pola. Why? The answer to that question is fascinating. The term comes from revolutionary hero Policarpa Salavarrieta, who was a spy for Revolutionary forces against Spain, and who was ultimately executed for high treason against the Spanish crown.
Colombia’s “Day of Women” is held on November 14, the anniversary of her death. As she faced a Spanish firing squad, she is reported to have said:
“Vile soldiers, turn your arms against the enemies of your homeland, indolent people! How different your fate would be today if you knew the price of liberty! But it is not too late: see that — though I am a woman and young — I have courage enough to suffer death and a thousand other deaths more. Do not forget this example […] Wretched people, I pity you.”
In 1911, the Bavaria Brewery (Colombia) launched a beer in her honor, named La Pola. This beer and advertising campaign was a strategy to compete with Chicha which was very fashionable at the time. Although this beer is no longer produced nationally, the slang term “pola” is nowadays commonly associated with beer in Colombia.
In Colombia, beer is revolutionary!
Hasta pronto, piratas!
Josh, I'm beginning to have the suspicion that you're not working for the Tourism Bureau.