Right surge in Bolivia: but still big surprises

Rodrigo Paz defies polls leading up to elections to take the lead

Rodrigo Paz, preliminary leader of first-round results

Official rapid count results show right-wing candidate Rodrigo Paz pulling ahead of the pack to win a plurality in Bolivian presidential elections. With just over 30%, according to preliminary results, he will be facing off against Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga in a second round.

The left, as expected, was widely trounced. MAS achieved 3.4% of the vote, according to officials, just enough to keep their ballot line on national elections. But the margin in tiny, and could change in official results, which are expected in 72 hours.

Unexpectedly, however, right-wing candidate Samuel Doria Medina was eliminated, with preliminary results showing him at 20%, behind Quiroga’s 27%.

Paz ran on what he called a “Capitalism for all” or “Money for all” platform: a program of accessible credit, tax breaks to boost the formal economy, and the elimination of import barriers to products that Bolivia does not manufacture. "Better times are coming. Lower tariffs, lower taxes, plenty of credit, money for everyone,“ he said at an event in Achacachi in June. ”Capitalism for all, not just for a few," was a recurring theme of his campaign.

He also ran strongly on anti-corruption efforts. Paz is running alongside Edman Lara as his vice-presidential candidate, a former captain in the National Police who was dismissed in 2024 due to disciplinary proceedings. Lara, who had reported alleged cases of corruption in the security forces, rejects the accusations as pushback from corrupt police.

Both candidates are presenting market-friendly solutions to Bolivia’s economic crisis. The country currently faces year-on-year inflation of 24.8%, depleted international reserves, high public debt, falling gas production, a persistent fiscal deficit, and exchange rate pressure with a rising parallel dollar market.

Medina, a businessman, proposes structural and spending reforms: sharp cuts in public spending, privatizations, elimination of fuel subsidies, opening up to foreign investment, and comprehensive reform of trade policy.

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