The Big Stories in LATAM
Ultra-right surge in Colombia, State of Exception in Bolivia, and and a focus on non-state armed groups in coming weeks in the Andes
Ultra-right, Trump-endorsed candidate headed for likely win in Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella, who has promised “Total War” against criminal groups in the country, won the quick count in Colombian elections on Sunday by a razor-thin margin.
With a mandate of less than 1%, de la Espriella takes office after a campaign filled with violent rhetoric towards his critics, and promises to greatly expand the power of the presidency.
Whether he will be successful or not is another question. If his victory is confirmed by the slower official count in coming days, he will lack a coalition in Congress, and any clear election mandate.
Protests have already developed spontaneously in Bogota and Cali. De la Espriella’s campaign promises to invite US military actions into the country as part of “Plan Colombia 2.0” is also highly likely to face domestic pushback.
No matter what happens next, Colombia is headed for a rough period.
Thomas Garrison has a great breakdown of non-state armed groups at his Substack this week that is highly relevant in coming days and weeks. “The Colombian Armed Groups Catalogue” breaks down the largest NSAGs currently operating in the country, describes their origins, and their goals.
We highly recommend it.
”State of Exception” in Bolivia
President Paz declared a “State of Exception” in Bolivia. The decree grants broad powers to the military to dismantle blockades in the country which have stretched in their third month.
The decision has been publicly considered by the government for weeks, and now occurs after most of the social groups protesting have agreed to negotiations with the Paz government in return for standing down.
Some hard-line groups declared a “pause” to blockades shortly after the government announcement. Protests in Bolivia are likely effectively over, with only a few holdouts facing a military that has been known for its brutality towards protesters historically.
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