The plot thickens surrounding Salvadoran deployment to Haiti
El Salvador has deployed 2,000 troops to Haiti following the capture of 4 of their military medics on October 20. The deployment brings the total troop deployment in Haiti to 2,500, roughly the same as the entire UN peacekeeping mission in the country.
In comments to the press assuring reporters that Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has the green light from Washington, US President Donald Trump stated that the medics are likely dead. Bukele seemed to back the announcement, reposting Trump’s statement on social media with only the words “can confirm.”
Bukele’s initial statements on the deployment stated the objective was to rescue the missing medics. If they were not delivered, Bukele threatened to “destroy” Haitian gangs.
El Salvador’s mission parameters are unclear, but Bukele allies are claiming the objective is to take the fight directly to Haitian gangs. Bukele himself has not elaborated beyond his initial public statements.
This story bears watching closely in the coming days and weeks. The UN peacekeeping mission has largely failed. Haitian interim authorities have repeatedly cancelled elections, claiming that conditions in the country are far too dangerous for public polling.
Haiti currently has the highest homicide rate outside of active war zones in the world. Two years of UN deployment have failed to stem rising violence.
Is this deployment more stage magic from a ruler who often rules via his PR team? Or are Salvadoran patrols going to behave as aggressively as his allies suggest? And what would be the consequences of the latter?
At PWS, we will be watching this story closely.
Is Venezuela really bombing the ELN?
Venezuelan NGO Fundaredes published unconfirmed reports on Sunday that Venezuelan security forces had bombed an ELN encampment. The announcement was accompanied with photos and videos of dead figures in what looked to be a scene of devastation consistent with attacks by explosives.
If true, the action would be a huge change in Venezuelan security policy. Venezuelan forces have at times clashed with some elements of FARC dissident groups — most notably frente 10 in 2021 — but clashes with ELN fighters are extremely rare and always very localized.
The government under former President Nicolas Maduro largely tolerated ELN presence in the region and the ELN, at least ostensibly, supported the Maduro government’s anti-US attitude and actions.
The founder of Fundaredes, Javier Tarazona, was detained by the Maduro government for more than two years. The government used a broad and vaguely written “anti-hate” law, which criminalizes dissent against the state, to detain Tarazona under charges of “terrorism.”
We have monitored Fundaredes reporting for years. Though the NGO has broken some very important stories, they have also at times leapt to conclusions that proved to later be premature.
There was no official announcement from US, Venezuelan, or Colombian authorities in the bombing, which occurred in the state of Apure.
The claim will no doubt be investigated over coming days. If it proves to be true, this could be a defining moment in relations between the ELN and the Delcy Rodriguez government.
The ELN is very capable of pushing back against security forces within Venezuela, and a bombing — or drone attack — would represent a serious escalation.
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Hasta pronto, piratas!
