The Big Stories to watch this week in LATAM
Do US warnings to commercial flights in LATAM mean more strikes? Intra-guerrilla wars in Colombia. Guatemala tries "mano dura" on for size
FAA Issues New Warnings. Are more US strikes eminent in LATAM?
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Friday issued warnings of a “potentially hazardous situation” in a number of areas, including above parts of the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California.
Similar warnings preceded US strikes on Venezuela earlier this month. Last month, a JetBlue passenger jet bound for New York took evasive action to avoid a midair collision with a US Air Force tanker plane near Venezuela.
Trump has raised the possibility of other military actions in the area, including against Colombia and Mexico. Following the US intervention in Venezuela, which detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump has floated the idea of “strikes on land” against “cartel” and “terrorist” targets.
The warnings issued on Friday will last 60 days, the FAA said. It might be nothing, but it also very well might be a prelude to more US airstrikes in the region.
Meanwhile, bombings of fastboats in Latin America and the Caribbean continue, as do US seizures of oil tankers near Venezuela. PWS will be keeping an eye on US activities in the region over the coming weeks.
Outbreaks of Intra-guerrilla warfare in Colombia on two fronts in Colombia
Two ongoing conflicts in separate regions of Colombia have left more than 100,000 people displaced and an unknown number of people killed. In Guaviare, in central Colombia, 300 km (186 miles) south of Bogotá, fighting between two dissident FARC factions has left at least 27 dead.
Both groups were once part of Estado Mayor Central (EMC), but split over internal divisions and EMC’s decision to abandon peace processes with the government. Ivan Mordisco (EMC) is battling another FARC group (EMFB), led by Alexander Diaz Mendoza,
Meanwhile, in Catatumbo, on the Colombian border, leftist group ELN is engaged in ongoing operations against another front of EMFB. The fighting has displaced more than 100,000 people, according to Colombia’s Defensoria.
ELN mounted a massive offensive in early 2025, removing EMFB from the region, but EMFB seems to have regrouped and is trying to retake territory made all the more valuable after recent US actions in Venezuela.
State of Emergency in Guatemala after widespread prison riots
Inmates took dozens of hostages in three separate prison riots in Guatemala last week, in riots that killed at least 7 prison officials.
In response, President Bernardo Arevalo issued a 30-day “emergency order”, which restricts civil liberties and allows security officers to arrest or detain citizens without warrant.
Arevelo won office on a reform campaign, in part promising to move away from “iron fist” security measures. So much for that shit, though.
We’ll be watching to see how the security situation developes. Neighboring Honduras has imposed Bukele copycat strategies, as has Ecuador, both with little positive effect.
The “mano dura” security approach is gaining momentum in LATAM, across the entire political spectrum.
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