The question isn't "Will Bolivia turn right?", it's "Will MAS survive at all?"
Bolivians head to the polls amidst economic crisis, political fractures, scandals and growing frustration
This article will be updated throughout the day as elections unfold. You can go to the website for ongoing coverage.
Bolivians head to the polls today in a presidential election that will likely mark a historic course change for a country reeling from economic and social crisis. For almost two decades, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) has held power, first under the charismatic leadership of Evo Morales and then Luis Arce.
But weakened, fractured, and facing an abysmal approval rating, the party is now at risk not only of losing in the first round, but losing their ability to even run in future elections.
Current President Arce, who is not running for re-election, has an approval rating of about 3% — incidentally roughly the same figure that MAS was polling at this week before campaigning came to an official end on Thursday.
Following the end of the “economic miracle” related to a commodities boom in the country from 2004-2014, economic growth slowed. A combination of mismanagement, static prices in oil and mining commodities, and political strife (including a coup attempt in 2024), have left voters ready for a change.
Bolivia currently faces year-on-year inflation of 24.8%, depleted international reserves, high public debt, falling gas production, a persistent fiscal deficit, and exchange rate pressure with a rising parallel dollar market.
Meanwhile, MAS has split, with Morales, who tried and failed to participate in current elections, operating alone and growing increasingly isolated. If what’s left of the coalition doesn’t achieve 5% of the popular vote in today’s vote, they will lose the political charter that allows them to auto-register candidates for legislative, local and national elections — a potential death blow for a party that once enjoyed sky-high approval ratings.
The current front-runners, Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga, are neck and neck in polls. Both are from right-wing parties. The question seems not to be “Will Bolivia turn right?”, but rather, “Will MAS survive the election at all?”
Medina, a businessman, and Quiroga, a former president and right-wing politician, share an agenda of structural reforms: sharp cuts in public spending, privatizations, elimination of fuel subsidies, opening up to foreign investment, and comprehensive reform of trade policies.
These proposals are exciting for the business community and the markets—which are already discounting a possible agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—but they risk sparking social tension and protest in a country where millions depend on state subsidies or jobs at state companies to survive.
Our podcast from two weeks ago with Jordan Cooper, an Anthropologist and analyst in Bolivia breaks down all the context. If you haven’t checked it out, you should.
MAS faces an existential threat in upcoming Bolivian elections
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