Was Maduro handed over by his own team?

Some reporting suggests US attack on Caracas may not have come as much as a surprise to some Venezuelan officials as they are publicly claiming

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro arrived in Manhattan late Saturday evening, smiling as he was escorted by DEA agents in a video released by the White House. “Good night,” he says to waiting agents. “Happy New Year.”

In a second photo, he can be seen seated in handcuffs on a chair, smiling and giving a double-thumbs up.

He is expected to await trial in Brooklyn on drug charges, corruption, and weapons charges, according to a newly unsealed US federal indictment. He was captured in a nighttime US attack on Caracas and surrounding towns, which involved heavy bombardments, and a CIA source highly placed in his security detail, according to Reuters.

But regime-change doesn’t seem to be in the cards for Venezuela, at least in the short-term, according to statements by US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a press conference Saturday afternoon.

Rubio and US General John Dan “Razing” Caine, in response to questions from the media, stated that Maduro has “ceded power to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez,” who will hold power in the country.

But their exact intentions are unclear, as Trump also asserted that the US would “run the country,” and further implied that Rodriguez would bow to US will, or risk facing “a second strike” on Venezuela.

Responding to questions from understandably confused journalists, he replied that Rodriguez “has been sworn in. She is Maduro’s replacement.” And of Venezuela, “we’re gonna run it properly…she was sworn in..We’re gonna make sure the Venezuelan people are taken care of…We’re not afraid of boots on the ground.”

In the same appearance, Trump seemed to completely abandon opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who has vocally supported the idea of a US intervention and often repeated false claims made by the US president.

Of Machado, Trump said, “It would be very tough for her to be the leader [of Venezuela] as she doesn’t have the respect within the country. She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”

Shortly afterwards, Rodriguez appeared in another official state video, surrounded by high-ranking civilian and military officials, denying Trump’s claims, and responding with bellicose rhetoric as she asserted she would preserve “Venezuelan independence” and denounced “imperialist aggression” against the country.

But both Rodriguez and Trump may be saying what they believe domestic audiences want to hear more than revealing what is really going on behind the scenes.

Analysts and observers across the political spectrum, even sometimes from diametrically opposed camps, have started coalescing around the theory that Maduro’s exit was negotiated.

Eva Golinger, author of several books on and outspoken advocate for Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, wrote of Rodriguez on social media to PWS, “it’s clear she made a deal. Rubio affirmed it after the presser in so many words.”

In another post, in response to reporting that Chavista officials were taking a hard line against the US, she responded, “Delcy had to save face with the pueblo through her speech...the tough language was likely part of the deal she made with Trump/Rubio.”

US attacks Venezuelan capital, captures Maduro

Meanwhile, in Miami, opposition supporters in the US also theorized that the remaining high-level Venezuelan officials had sacrificed Maduro in a backdoor deal that allowed them to keep power, for now, and described abandoning Machado as a betrayal.

It was widely reported last year that Rodriguez was attempting to broker a deal with the White House that would have meant Maduro leaving office, but leaving remaining officials in charge of Venezuela, and offering substantial resources to the US.

At the time, the deal was reportedly rejected. But reporting from the Miami Herald on Saturday suggested the proposal may have only been an opening offer, and that back-channel negotiations have continued, allowing Rodriguez to stay in power along with other powerful Chavista figures, such as Vladimir Padrino and Diosdado Cabello.

Regardless of whether that turns out to be the truth, most journalists, analysts, and military specialists are increasingly adopting the working hypothesis that someone on the Trump team cut a deal with someone on the Maduro team that led to his capture, which happened at light speed with highly ineffective military resistance within Venezuela.

The Maduro trial in the US, however, is going to be closely watched and also heavily politicized. Though Maduro lacks the natural charisma of his predecessor, Chavez, who often captivated audiences around the world with his dramatic speeches at the UN and in lengthy televised diatribes criticizing US actions in Latin America, he has decades of experience in public speaking and a well-developed, ready-to-go repertoire of lines criticizing US hypocrisy.

He is likely to deploy those skills at every opportunity, which could lead to some dramatic moments. Is his current cheerful demeanor an attempt to make the best of a horrible situation? Is it a strategy? Is it simply a coping mechanism? Or was he also in on a possible deal?

We don’t have the definitive answer. But though Trump’s bombing of the Venezuelan capital reminded many of the Iraq War, something very different may actually be at play here.

It’s much easier to avoid “nation-building” and “regime change” when you simply leave the same government in power. The US has enormous leverage over the Venezuelan government currently, thanks to actions many experts in the US have described as “blatantly illegal.”

They may well be. But for the moment, that’s a bit of a moot point. Those actions have already been carried out. How Trump will use his leverage, however, very much remains to be seen.

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