From "Total Peace" to "Total Military Offensive"
From "Total Peace" to "Total Military Offensive"
Petro's military campaign against EMC in Cauca is merely the latest in a turn towards force rather than dialogue
President Gustavo Petro won elections in Colombia on promises to finally bring “Total Peace” to a country that has suffered more than half a century of internal conflict. Last week, Petro called for “a total offensive” against the rebel group Estado Mayor Central (EMC) instead.
How did Petro go from the rhetoric of peacebuilding to waging war against irregular armed groups in the style of his presidential predecessors? In a word, antagonism.
After his peacebuilding agenda suffered a series of setbacks, Petro seems to have lost his patience with some of the armed groups who have been party to negotiations with the government. The change is reflected not just in the tone of his speeches, but also in increasingly aggressive military tactics.
Last month, the government voided a ceasefire and resumed military actions against some battalions of EMC after they attacked indigenous communities in the southwest of the country. Since then, a military offensive by the government against the group in the department of Cauca has yielded mixed results— and resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Colombian soldiers.
Last week, in the midst of a heavy confrontation with EMC, retreating military forces left the bodies of four soldiers behind, intending to come back for them later. EMC militants removed the heads, and “profaned the bodies”, according to statements from the military.
Petro was outraged in public statements, calling for further military escalation. He described EMC as "murderers of the people and drug traffickers", to which the EMC responded that Petro, by calling for a "total offensive is closing the doors of dialogue and peace", and “showing his true face.”
EMC splinters
In the meantime, EMC seems to have suffered a schism. The group, which formed from FARC fighters who rejected the rebel group’s 2016 peace deal with the government, is now being led by two different commanders with two very different objectives.
EMC was long commanded by Nestor Gregorio Vera Fernandez, alias “Iván Mordisco,” who had a long history as a rebel leader of FARC forces before forming EMC. The group is so known for his leadership that it is often referred to as “Mordisco’s boys” by experts and scholars who study the Colombian conflict.
And it is Mordisco who has gone to war again with the Colombian state with the battalions of EMC in southwestern Colombia. But the regiments further north have broken from the command structure and announced their intentions to keep negotiating with the government in return for disarmament.
That leaves Mordisco alone, facing a military offensive that is unprecedented during the Petro administration. But he is doing so from EMC’s stronghold, the Micay River canyon area in the region of Cauca where the group is strongest.
The campaign has already proven brutal for security forces. In the long term, Mordisco is extremely unlikely to win a war of attrition against state forces, but surviving offensives by conventional state forces is exactly what he has done for his entire adult life.
A grinding campaign
The fighting has included the use of artillery and air support on the side of the security forces and has also killed at least 15 EMC fighters.
The recent incident over abandoned soldiers has led to a public relations battle between EMC and the Army. Military officials claim they have retrieved the bodies while EMC published a series of messages and photographs on April 4 contradicting that information.
In public comments, Mordisco called the government claims "lies to win the war.” “The FARC-EP took custody of [the remains] and handed them over to a humanitarian mission, in the face of abandonment, decomposition, and out of respect for their families. They were not desecrated, they were guarded. You have to have military honor," they claimed.
But the government released a recording they claim is an EMC field commander ordering the decapitation of the bodies left behind.
As the conflict escalates, however, it is often the civilian population that is caught in the middle. The department of Cauca has long been an epicenter of conflict in the post-accord era, and EMC is far from the only armed group that operates there.
The National Liberation Army (ELN) is also active in the region, though at the moment they are engaged in a bilateral ceasefire with the Petro administration.
According to human rights watchdog Indepaz, Cauca recorded the highest number of murders of social leaders and human rights defenders last year, with 38 of the 188 cases counted in Colombia. The region has also long been rife with conflict between indigenous civilian groups and the armed groups that operate in the region.
"In the department of Cauca, Nasa indigenous people who oppose abuses committed by armed groups have been threatened, forcibly recruited and killed. Clashes between armed groups have left more than 6,500 people displaced or confined," Human Rights Watch said in its 2024 world report.
So is this the end of “Total Peace”?
Not at all. In an interview with PWS in May, Elizabeth Dickinson, senior Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group said “Some setbacks are to be expected. This is an incredibly complex and ambitious plan.”
“It is likely that some groups will splinter,” she said in comments that now seem prescient, “as some elements decide they would rather continue criminal activities than negotiate a disarmament with the government.”
But this offensive does represent a change in government tactics. When Petro took office, ceasefires were often granted by security forces without concessions in return from armed groups, many of whom simply used the opportunity to consolidate their positions.
Other groups in the country are no doubt watching as talks at the negotiating table occur in conjunction with aggressive military actions for those who oppose security forces.
The government has also resumed operations against AGC, the largest criminal structure in the country, with Petro saying in March “If they aren’t willing to dismantle themselves, state forces will do it for them.”
ELN remains at the negotiating table, despite tensions over ceasefire protocols, as do other “fronts” of EMC. This isn’t a fatal blow to “Total Peace”.
It is however a turning point away from rhetoric towards the strategies of previous administrations that preferred military solutions to social ones, though this time paired with negotiation offers.
Petro may find that this yields results. Or it may just be one more setback on the road to peace for a country that has been mired in low-intensity conflict for more than 60 years. But one thing is certain, every criminal group in the country is watching closely as Mordisco goes head-to-head with the Colombian state.
The Big Headlines in Latam
Venezuela’s last glacier has shrunk enough that scientists have downgraded it to an “ice field”. It is the seventh glacier that Venezuela has lost in the last 100 years. The decision is based on the decline in the size of the Humboldt, or La Corona glacier, in the Andes, from 450 hectares to just ten.
It is merely the latest event in a series of climate change-related climate and habitat losses in South America which have changed precipitation patterns, causing drought and floods, as well as desertification in regions such as Guajira— an indigenous region that stretches across the borders of Colombia and Venezuela.
We wrote last month about how these climate changes are already affecting migration in the region — a trend that is going to displace millions as previously arable land becomes barren, and ecosystems collapse near the equator.
Speaking of floods, Brazil is suffering a historically unprecedented series of floods in the south of the country. Days of torrential downpours have submerged entire towns as well as transport infrastructure. It is the third mass flooding event this year.
Scientists in Brazil are urging people to prepare for more, calling the events “the new normal”.
Former security chief José Raúl Mulino won elections on Sunday in Panama. Mulino took over the campaign after his ex-boss was convicted for money laundering. The combative political insider has promised to restore economic boom times to the country and free his boss, who is currently hiding out in the Nicaraguan embassy.
We wrote a special election explainer on Mulino’s platform, his history, and the challenges he will face governing.
The Ship’s Log
Joshua is hunkered down in Bogota. After a piratical expedition to the Darien, he finds himself low on supplies, awaiting payment for several freelance jobs. Oh, the life of a pirate! But he must merely wait out the doldrums. Several new stories are in the works, and several accounting departments assure him that “payment is processing”.
Meanwhile, Daniela is preparing for a trip to Panama for further investigations on the Darien Gap from the Panamanian side for the same series of articles published at the New Humanitarian.
The PWS life is nothing if not exciting. Thanks for being a part of it.
Spanish Word of the Week
Bochinche
Gossip that has grown on the proverbial graprevine to gigantic proportions is often referred to as bochinche. Sometimes, a rumor is started with malicious intent, to slander someone. Other times, as is often the case with politicians, they claim that mostly true accusations are merely bochinche.
As journalists, we spend a lot of time listening to determine if bochinche has any basis in fact. Sometimes it does! Often it doesn’t.
But we still deeply love chisme (gossip), the less badly intentioned cousin of bochinche.
Think of chisme as the adorable neighborhood story collector, who has the latest news on all the juicy happenings, and bochinche as the spiteful neighbor who makes up lies about everyone they don’t like.
Here at PWS we publish chismes sometimes, though we identify them as such. Bochinche however is a no-go zone— the domain of grifters, con men and pundits.
Pero tienes chisme caliente? Damelo! — You have the latest spicy gossip? Give it to me!
