The Big Stories to watch this week in LATAM
Bolsonaro verdict in Brazil. Milei faces crushing defeat in local elections. Mexico-US relations and holy moly, Venezuela!
LATAM Daily Wires brings you the stories to watch this week in Latin America and the big headline developments over the weekend. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you should.
Bolsonaro verdict expected Friday in Brazil
Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling Friday in the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro. He is accused of supporting a coup following Brazilian elections in 2022, and could face 42 years in prison if found guilty.
Supporters of the President staged large rallies across the country in support of the far-right leader last week.
US President Donald Trump has been trying unsuccessfully to pressure Brazilian courts into dropping the trial. In an attempt to help Bolsonaro, Washington has imposed a 50% tariff on most Brazilian products and sanctioned judges and officials affiliated with the case.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son who moved to the US in March to seek help from the White House, has warned in recent days of additional sanctions linked to his father's trial and possible conviction.
Saturday night, President Lula de Silva delivered a national message ahead of Independence Day celebrations, asserting Brazilian independence in the matter, saying the country “will not be anyone’s colony.”
Holy Moly, US-Venezuela situation!
Tensions have been rising exponentially between Washington DC and Caracas in recent weeks, culminating in a drone strike last week on what the US claims was a drug smuggling vessel near Venezuelan waters that killed all 11 people on board.
Trump and Rubio have also spoken to members of the press about the possibility of further strikes “against cartels” inside the country.
We’ve been covering the story extensively at PWS, and will continue to do so throughout the week. Will escalation between the two countries continue, or will they find an off-ramp?
If you missed our stories on how the naval deployment is affecting Venezuelans inside the country, or our breakdown on the known-knowns from the drone strike, check them out!
Milei faces crushing rebuke in local elections in Argentina
President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), suffered a double-digit defeat in Argentine local elections Sunday. The defeat comes as LLA reels from corruption scandals against top officials in its ranks, including Milei’s sister, Karina Milei.
In public remarks Sunday night at his party’s campaign house in Gonnet, President Milei acknowledged that the results were a “clear defeat.”
“Today the results were not positive. We’ve had an electoral defeat, and we have to accept it,” he said.
In the province of Buenos Aires, the results were even more devastating for LLA, which won just two of eight races. The election for the leadership of Argentina’s wealthiest province is viewed as a litmus test for Milei’s so-called “chainsaw” measures, as 40 percent of the country’s population lives there, and it accounts for a third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Mexico-US relations: Sheinbaum walks a tight-rope as US ratchets up pressure throughout LATAM
As the US ratchets up pressure on Venezuela, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the country on Wednesday.
The goal of his visit was to consolidate security cooperation with Mexico as the Trump administration pursues a sweeping crackdown on illegal immigration and drug cartels.
The meeting took place immediately following the US drone strike on a small boat near Venezuelan waters. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been increasingly cooperative with the US on migration, crime enforcement, and cooperation with DEA officials on intelligence gathering operations against Mexican cartels.
“Never in the history of either country have we seen the level of cooperation that we are seeing between our two countries,” said Rubio in public remarks following the meeting. “There is no other government that is cooperating as much with us against criminality as the Mexican government. We are very thankful to them.”
Sheinbaum has opposed US strikes on cartels in Mexican soil, though she has avoided direct confrontation with the US over the matter. She often speaks of "sovereignty" and “cooperation” in the same speeches as she walks a diplomatic tightrope with a country that has put tariffs on many Mexican goods.
She has so far avoided a trade war with her US counterpart, Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened blanket sanctions. Mexican cooperation on border enforcement is crucial for Trump’s nativist policies.
Sheinbaum is likely watching Venezuela closely, however, as US policy takes a turn towards lethal actions, a dynamic that Trump has loudly declared he would like to bring to Mexico as well.
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Hasta pronto, piratas!
