The Big Story to Watch This Week
There's really only one: Venezuela. Just sound and fury or is regime change brewing?
There are some people in the Donald Trump administration who really want you to pay attention to Venezuela this week. A series of intentional leaks, planted news stories (one of which turned out to be false), and public statements by US politicians in DC have been clearly coordinated around Monday’s formal designation of the Venezuelan government as a foreign terror organization.
The designation is timed to coincide with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s birthday.
On Saturday, “sources” in the US government told Reuters that “the United States is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days.” Reports were very vague about what US plans might be in the country, but unnamed administration officials said they could involve “covert operations.”
Others said the phase would consist of dropping mean pamphlets on major cities in an attempt to spoil any potential birthday celebrations.
That same day, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a notice warning airlines of a potentially hazardous situation caused by increased military activity in and around Venezuela.
That news caused some carriers to cancel flights to Caracas, though many remain operating.
On Sunday, a FOX News correspondent reported that foreign diplomatic staff in Venezuela had evacuated the country ahead of a US military operation that would remove Maduro from power. This report was not true.
The U.S. military has bolstered its presence near Venezuela, with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group now in the Caribbean and the White House saying the CIA has permission to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.
Taken together, this week’s events have caused speculation among some Venezuela watchers to reach a fever pitch. And the blue check OSINT accounts on Twitter have become utterly insufferable.
Is all the noise a sign of an imminent military operation? Or are all the leaks and announcements merely psy-ops designed to pressure Maduro? Or are they a sign of division within the Trump administration?
Rubio and allies have been pushing strongly for Maduro’s removal by any means necessary, but Trump seems less enthusiastic — perhaps because of polls showing more than 70% of voters in the US oppose the idea.
They have been opposed by the isolationist wing of the Trump team, who have a sour taste in their mouths from years of disastrous US military adventurism in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is the story to watch this week. Just sound and noise, or is another US regime change around the corner?
We honestly have no idea. At this point we doubt even Trump knows for sure what he is going to do. We will be on call all week, however. If the US does decide to escalate we may be quickly heading to the Colombian-Venezuelan borderlands for on-the-ground details.
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Hasta pronto, piratas
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It's definitely a psy-op (so far).